Daniel Dillon

Through my internship with TCF, and in working with Bob, I gained a deeper and more nuanced understanding of macroeconomic theory that would eventually help guide my final coursework at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas.

Project

I had the chance to write a paper with TCF fellow Robert Hockett on the relationship between income inequality and financial crises. Drawing on 100 years of data, we used autoregressive filtering (ARIMA) and time-lagged cross correlations to examine the potential for a causal link between increases in income concentration and subsequent market downturns, with household debt as a mediating variable. The paper finds some evidence to suggest that high levels of income inequality, as measured by large concentrations of income at the top of the distribution, predict recessionary periods several years later.

Reflection

“Through my internship with TCF, and in working with Bob, I gained a deeper and more nuanced understanding of macroeconomic theory that would eventually help guide my final coursework at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas. After the internship ended, Bob invited me to co-present our paper at a George Washington University Law conference in Washington D.C.–a wonderful opportunity to meet established thinkers in the field and share our work.“